A group of American scientists presented the results of a study according to which the rapid increase in average life expectancy observed in the last two centuries may slow down significantly. Researchers from the University of Illinois at Chicago suggest that humanity has approached the biological limits of its longevity, reports snob.ru.
Professor Jay Olshansky, lead author of the study, notes that despite significant advances in medicine in extending the lives of older people, the effectiveness of new developments in this area is gradually decreasing. This may indicate the end of the era of rapidly increasing life expectancy.
The study covered ten countries and territories with high rates of longevity, including Japan, France, Sweden and the United States. Scientists analyzed changes in the probability of death among older people and their chances of living to 100 years old, comparing the data obtained with statistics for the period 1950-2019.
The results showed that life expectancy growth had virtually stopped in all countries studied. Over the past 30 years, mortality among people over 65 years of age has decreased by only 30%, although a decrease of 88% was required for life expectancy to continue at the same rate.
Scientists' forecasts for the next 30 years suggest an increase in life expectancy of only 2,5 years in countries with the largest number of centenarians, which is significantly lower than in previous years. Researchers estimate that only 15% of women and 5% of men will live to be 100 this century.
Overcoming this limit can only become possible with the advent of innovative gene therapies and drugs that slow down the aging process. However, even this does not guarantee that all people will be able to reach the age of one hundred. Thus, the study casts doubt on the possibility of significantly extending life using existing medical technologies.